Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of Crystal Skull

In just a tad more than 21 days, the new Indiana Jones movie will be unveiled.  I can't wait!!!  "No time for love, Dr. Jones."

Meanwhile, I found this on YouTube.com.  Pretty good, except the resolution is a bit too low.


Gas Tax

When I heard that HRC was proposing a gasoline tax cut, I was saying to myself, "Here we go again."  It's amazing how many economists have come out from the woodwork against this idea.  And it is a bad idea.  Sure, it's a one time thing - just this summer.  But the thing is suspending the gasoline tax is not going to relief consumers from paying higher prices at the pumps.  Let's face it, there will be no more $55 per barrel of crude oil.  That price level has been RIP (though dearly missed) for a few years now.  We have to get used to hearing $100 per barrel.  Oil reserves are not going to be replenished anytime soon.  So, as supply declines and demand keeps going up, you know what will happen.

Relieving gasoline tax will only take away tax revenue.  We know that we can't afford to take anymore from the piggy bank right now.
(See Tom Friedman's and Paul Krugman's articles from the New York Times on the subject.)

Eat Your Rice

Both my mom and grandma used to tell me to eat every grain of rice on my plate; however, they didn't want me to be wasteful not because rice was expensive, but more out of respect for hard labor that farmers put in to getting each grain of rice.  Growing up in Thailand with rice paddies as just across a narrow canal away, I got to witness the labor.  With no aids from machines, growing rice is literally a back-breaking occupation.

In these days and ages, you'd think food production would get cheaper with the help of all kinds of machines.  As we recently have seen, food prices are getting higher and higher.  This is due to the cardinal economic theory:  There's just not enough supply to serve the demand.  There are various reasons contributing to the lessen food supply.  Crop yields can be volatile due to weather (or nature).  Productions also have been falling either due to the rising prices of fertilizers or less land available for agriculture.  On top of that there has been an increasing competition for food such as corn and soybean for fuel production.  Farmers would rather grow corn for biofuel plants than to feed the population because they can get higher prices.  Can you imagine the day when corn becomes a delicacy?  You might think it's a funny question, but it could happen.
So, what should be the solutions?  Tell countries like Thailand, who's the biggest rice exporter in the world, to stop urbanizing their countries so that there would still be farmland to grow sufficient food supply for the rest of the world?  Stop the developments for biofuels?  Grow more GMD food?  The thought of more GMD makes me cringe.  I know that all evidence is showing there's nothing wrong with them.  On the other hand, the FDA still doesn't have a clear idea of the effects of growth hormones that we've been injecting in our meat for decades.  I personally think that the way our food sources have been modified over the years is responsible for human evolution in a negative direction.  Kids reach puberty much faster, people are more susceptible to terminal illnesses, etc.  But that's a whole different discussion.
I don't know what the solutions should be.  The world is still growing.  The industrialized nations have been growing at a much slower pace, but the developing countries are just starting to catch up.  People also have been living longer.  Who knows, may be when food prices soar high enough people might start leaving their six-figure jobs on Wallstreet for another six-figure jobs in the heartland-USA.
If you'd like to read more on this topic, here's a good special coverage on "Agflation" by Reuters.
Meanwhile, don't waste your food!  (Your Schoolhouse Rock message of of the day :) )

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Happy Belated Earth Day

Bravo to a recent article in the New York Times on being green. The article asks, why bother with reducing our carbon footprint when many data and forecasting models are showing that our actions may be too little too late. The answer is, of course, our actions still matter in this fight to global warming. Individuals, together, we can make impacts. We can demand markets to create more greener products and conduct their businesses in a greener manner. The article gives an example of hybrid cars. They're popping up everywhere like mushrooms. Pretty soon, you probably won't be able to buy one that is not hybrid.

One interesting point that the author makes in the article is how our society has "assigned us a tiny number of roles." You be the producers. You be the consumers. Often, we don't think about how products are being produced as long as there are products for us to consume. Similarly, producers don't care how they produce products as long as they are being consumed.
This leads me to link this article to what I'm learning in microeconomics this semester, which is game theory. In short, game theory explores how individuals make decisions given choices they face. We often opt for options that give us the most utility or happiness. By maximizing your happiness, sometimes you act selfishly and do not account the impact of your actions on others. The result is not optimal or efficient. This is when a regulator steps in and tries to alter the outcome of our decision making. How can we be given incentives so that we would behave in a more efficient manner. In other words, how do we change individual's behavior so that the social outcome is improved.
You can tie game theory with many policies implemented by the government. Not all policy is an improvement. Sometimes you have to sacrifice happiness of some people. For example, the ban of smoking in bars is a good idea for the society as a whole, but it comes at the expense of all the smokers out there. (Ok, may be a bit weak example, but you get the point.) Same thing with getting people on board with the green movement. Government (or private groups) needs to find ways to alter people's behavior so that we all feel just as happy biking to work as driving to work (we are not losing any happiness.) And this has been a hard sell. As the article points out, our society has made it easier for us to become a wasteful or a throw-away society. We can produce goods and get goods cheaply. Americans pay less per kWh of electricity than many countries in the world, especially developing countries. Many countries also have higher prices of gasoline than the US. In developing countries, people are spending more of their incomes, which are not a whole lot to start with, toward buying gasoline, food, etc. I don't think it will be too long before India or China start talking green.
The point I'm trying to make is that I agree with the article. We have been taking many things for granted because they all come conveniently to us. If we would be paying higher price for electricity, then less people would be cranking up their heaters in the middle of the winter so that they can walk around their house in shorts. If we pay higher gasoline prices, then we might walk more instead of jumping into our cars just to go a few blocks. There's no certainty that all the green actions will make a dent in the amount bad things we do to the environment. And we can't point our fingers to other countries and say "Well, they're not doing it." But we have to believe what we do is the right thing. It's for the world that we all are living in.

MIA

Life has been quite hectic for me lately. I'm completely stressing out about my finals, which are rapidly approaching in two weeks. Therefore, as you can probably tell already, I haven't been blogging lately. Not even updating news links. But please don't stay away. I will be back before long!

Monday, April 14, 2008

Possible Cancer Treatment?

Last night, 60 minutes featured a story on a possible cancer treatment invented by John Kanzius, a leukemia patient. I thought the story was fascinating and full of hope. Mr. Kanzius himself has gone through (if I remember the number correctly) 60 chemotherapy treatments. He actually has thought of given up, but the hope of seeing his invention helping millions of lives gives him the reason to keep going. I hope that this dream will turn into reality as so many people are dealing with all types of cancer. Some are lucky to survive, but many are not.

Thursday, April 10, 2008

This is how it all started

So, I found this clip while I was browsing.  Sure Atari got here before Nintendo and Pac-Man and Mrs. Pac-Man were among the greatest, but it was the Mario brothers who took the US by storm.  The best part about the video?  Bill O'Reilly.



Animal Dung Coffee

If people have so much money to drink animal dung coffee at £50 a cup, may be they ought to think that their money could be better spend elsewhere, like... donation to feed people who are starving all over the world!

Ultra Mega Coal Power Plant

In an article reported in The New York Times yesterday, the International Finance Corporation (IFC) along with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and others have approved money for design and construction of a 4,000 MW coal-fired power plant in India.  That's huge!  I know it's not even the largest fossil plant in the world, but the planned project is gigantic regardless.  The article cited that the plant is expected to release approximately 23 million tons of carbon dioxide a year.  I'm sure this makes Al Gore tossing and turning at night.

This issue has been a sensitive one in my humble opinion.  India is a developing nation, and it needs access to reliable electricity, among other things, to grow its economy even further.  No one has the right to deny India, or any other developing countries, that they can't enjoy the prosperity like many industrialized countries have been.  In a way it seems that the developing countries are being punished for the industrialized countries' years of polluting this world.  And it's not just India.  China is very hungry for power to drive all its new developments.  It has large amount of proven coal reserves, and that what China has been using to fuel its power appetite at such a rapid rate.  I'm sure that there are many more countries that are just waiting for their turn to develop.
But, now that we know better, we should try to do the right thing with our fossil fuels.  India will suffer from global warming as well.  South Asia is prone to typhoons, and more, and much stronger, typhoons are predicted as an effect of warmer earth's atmosphere.  I realize that there are not too many choices out there.  Technologies that promise to capture CO2 and bury it in the ground forever are still expensive.  Besides, we still don't know how to bury CO2 safely.  Forget about integrated gasification combined-cycle (IGCC), which supposed to burn coal cleaner and release much less pollutants.  The capital costs are just too high.  Even the US are shying away from IGCC, how can we expect India to pay for the technology.  Natural gas is not a good fuel choice for many countries because of its availability.  It's also getting to be expensive.  Many liquified natural gas (LNG) projects have been delayed.  Many wells have been depleted.  The choices we (or India) can take are limited.
I'm still optimistic that there is a solution.  May be not for this project, but I hope for future "ultra-mega" power plant.

Tuesday, April 8, 2008

Are You Serious?

I don't want to gripe, but a recent approval by EU for uses of mobile on planes just irks me. You've got to be kidding! It's only a matter of time before the FAA considers a similar proposal. I think the use of mobile phone has gotten out of control. No one gives a second thought about their conversations in public anymore. I hear all sort of inappropriate conversations from people on cell phones all the time. Why should I care to hear about other people's lives when I have my own to worry about, which I certainly don't broadcast it publicly? I see that speaking on cell phones in enclosed spaces is just like having someone smoking in your face. And if there's such an uproar about smoking, why is talking on cell phone acceptable? Bring back smoking on airplanes then. When people talk on their cell phones on buses or trains, at least you have the option to move away. You won't be able to do so with assigned seatings like on an airplane. One of the reason the Commission has decided to approve the proporsal is that "continuous communication is a 'fact of modern life." So now, not only we have to endure screaming children, we have to deal with people's need for "continuous communication." Is there no line between what's appropriate and not anymore? Grrrr.

Friday, April 4, 2008

I have No Willpower

I think my husband can attest to that: I'm weak. I try to be better at disciplining myself, but it's hard. Sometimes it's like depriving yourself from enjoying life to the full extend. Sometimes it's more like, "Who cares?" or "Whatever." I'm better at disciplining myself on some subjects, like spending. I don't spend very much (except on books.) No shoes or purses, unless it's a good deal (and I mean GOOD deal.) But when I read a recent article in New York Times, "Tighten Your Belt, Strengthen Your Mind," I felt like there was something to be said about having weak self-control.
The article says that there's a storage of will-power. Every time you impose restrictions on yourself, like limiting food or drink, will-power gets depleted so that you have less will-power left over for the next tasks. This happens because planning and self-control are very sensitive to fluctuations in blood sugar level which brain cells use as energy resources. Therefore, it's best to focus your effort on one task, or a few tasks at most, to be successful. However, your can also train your brain to increase your will-power, like training for a marathon. The more self-control you do, the more will-power you will gain.
I find the article very interesting. It makes sense. However, why do I need to have self-control? I don't need to have large storage of will-power. I function just fine now. Now, if the article ties the size of your will-power to the memory storage or other brain performances, then I might be interested. I know I need as much memory cells as I can get to get through graduate school.

Wednesday, April 2, 2008

Simply Freaky

In 2005, there was a mania that swept through the US.  I certainly was caught up in the fad, along with many other people I know.  I am referring to the book Freakonomics.  Even though no actual economic theory was debunked nor new concept was introduced, I thought the book offered many intriguing economic perspectives, along with “riddles and stories to last a thousand cocktail parties,” as the inside cover claimed.  In a recent article “Freaks and Geeks – How Freakonomics is Ruining the Dismal Science” by Noam Scheiber in The New Republic April 2, 2007 issue, a blame was placed on Freakomics for creating a new breed of economics called “cute-o-mics,” that many questions raised by economists today were done only if they can draw media attentions.

Scheiber’s main complaint was a growing trend among young economists in searching for answers to questions that seem to be related to economics but not at all “truly deep questions we reply on economists to answer.”  There had been less interest in solving problems such as wages or inequality, while there was more focus on seeking relationships between, for example, Japanese sumo wrestler and Chicago schoolteachers and how each one had incentives to cheat.  He called this type of questions “’clean identification’—a situation in which it’s easy to discern the causal forces in play.” Questions got dumb-down so that answers could easily be found without years of data crunching or that no one wanted to ask “important” questions because they seemed boring.

Studies on topics such as how people pay too much for gym memberships they don’t use or how Mexican men pay prostitutes for unprotected sex are not so “earth shattering.”  While some made contribution, most are simply worthless.  Part of the problem, Scheiber explained, was that the authors were “usually unclear about the economic questions they address.”  They merely explained human behavior, but offer no explanation using any economics.  Scheiber stated further that because works like Levitts were “so far removed from using meat-and-potatoes economic theory they may as well be practicing journalism.”

The implication is that this kind of questions makes economics seem not at all that credible.  In defense of Freakonomics, Levitt tried to explain human behavior using economic analyses.  Take the case of incentive schemes from his book for example.  Levitt explained three types of incentive—economic, social, and moral—and the difference between each type.  Though he did not use economic terms such as Pareto optimal outcome or coordination failures, I thought he did a good job explaining the basic theory to average readers.  However, a question such as “stock traders are not sharp on Fridays because they’re distracted by the weekend” on the other hand offers little relevance to economics and can be answered by a statistician.  It compromises the integrity of the field of economics because I economists answer questions that much more meaningful than the examples cited above.  I think that there is a fine line here, and it depends on how an economic theory is presented.  As stated in the article by an economist David Card, “It is exactly like postmodernism in humanities.  What is there to say about Beethoven anymore?...Every moron can’t understand technical orchestration, doesn’t know the history of music.  So you write about him having a gay affair with his nephew.”